Forget The Polls ... Follow The Betting Markets


Trump Gets To 270 | @InsideDHive | X

When sports betting became legalized in May 2018 when the Supreme Court struck down the Amateur Sports Protection Act, no one could have imagined how quickly the betting markets would be integrated into daily American lives.

Throughout the US Presidential cycle this year the odds were a major focus for pundits and commentators. Those who were watching the Presidential betting markets weren't shocked about the results, but how it took center staged had to surprise even the most in tune wagering analyst.

You still can't bet on the Presidential race legally in America, but the Canadian market was strong, as were many off shore betting sites. In the days and weeks leading up to the election the betting market seemed to be a more accurate projection of the race than most polls.

Trump's lead grew and grew as we got closer to election day and as the night wore on the odds continued to shift to Trump in a major way. Most sites had Trump as a -135 or -140 favorite to win before the polls were closing but it was in those last few hours that the market really jumped ahead of the pollsters and new cycle. At 7pm eastern time Trump had jumped to more than a 2-1 lead to win the White House. By 8pm the odds were bumped up to -250 in most places. By 9 pm we saw -500 and it only kept climbing.

What was even more of an indication of the cultural awakening and influence that the betting markets have was watching Brit Hume continuously citing the odds live on the air. Hume though wasn't the only journalist who kept grabbing data from the betting market as almost all of the big networks were pointing to the moving odds as the Trump path to victory became obvious.

On a night where Missouri's sports betting bill passed, becoming the 39th state, Americans got a feel of just how accurate and normalized sports betting is in America. Although it's still illegal to bet on a Presidential race in the US, the people who were putting their hard earned money on a Trump victory were seemingly ahead of the game. The way the attention was placed on the betting markets throughout the night have to make us wonder if the unreliable polls may soon take a back seat to the now more accurate wagering numbers as a true indication of who will win the races.

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