There is an old saying among sports bettors and sports book people who are in the know. The public likes to bet on hoping things will happen, while the professional bettor bets against things to happen. That is why under and underdogs are historically so profitable. The professional bettor is betting against points and against favorites to cover. While the betting public generally likes to bet on the hope of going over or that the favorite will cover.
There is no better example of this than with player prop plays and the new expansion of that betting market. Now, as we enter the NBA Finals it has become even more pronounced. The casual bettor has been running to the player prop window and betting on the star players. We have seen the steam moving lines and pushing player numbers over before each of the first two games, and you shouldn't expect to see anything but more action on the star players.
The problem for the public is they are losing by hoping for players to perform above what the market has set, while professional bettors are making a killing betting against those situations. No player exemplifies this better than the Dallas Mavericks Luka Doncic. In game one Luka went well under his points scored prop, yet 80% of the money was on Luka to score against the #3 ranked defense in the NBA. In game two the books set Docic's points scored total at 31, but it was quickly bet up and landed on 32 1/2 points by the time game day rolled around. Luka ended the game with 32 points and every ticket to the over went up in smoke.
It isn't just Doncic though who had his points total fail his backers twice. The Celtics best player, and #1 offensive threat, Jason Tatum has also gone under his points total in two straight games to open up the Finals. In fact, Tatum hasn't cracked 18 points in either game. In fact Tatum hasn't come close to his set totals which were into the upper 20's both times.
So, as we approach game three and beyond keep in mind that it's tempting to hope for points and big scoring games from the NBA's biggest