Fantasy Baseball - Do Not Overreact


Nestor Cortes | @ForTheWin | X

It seems every season, no matter the level of manager in fantasy circles, everyone overreacts to the first few games of the season. This is a normal human response because you are so amped up to see these players perform that your first real glimpse makes a lasting impact, but it shouldn't. 

Aaron Judge is on pace to hit about 300 home runs, the Braves will never score a run, the White Sox have the best pitching in baseball, and Mike Trout is a bum and should retire. This all sounds silly right? That's because it is. The first week of the season will lead people to question their gut calls and worry about their slow starts, but it goes both ways because some will feel validated in their picks a little too early and potentially make moves based on that. 

This is the hold week, ok let's be real, this should be the hold month. Take the next few weeks to assess what we have watched and then you can make adjustments. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be active on the waiver wire or fielding trade offers but be cautious to not overreact to what you just watched. 

Torpedo bats and youngsters looking great can make you feel good, but you have to have a discerning eye for this. Take the Yankees for example, Austin Wells has often been called the perfect swing for Yankee Stadium, and now he is getting full time at bats. I'd be buying up Wells's fast start, but I also believed in him last week. Anthony Volpe has also been a massive talent ready to burst, but he isn't going to be a 40-home run hitter, even with his two early bombs with a torpedo bat. 

The flip side of that is also worth noting. Max Fried won't have 5 errors behind him and better days are in store for him in the pinstripes, and Nestor Cortes isn't the worst pitcher in the history of baseball. But, while I'm willing to bet on a Fried turn around based on his history, I am weary of Cortes when you consider how last season ended, and the injuries that led to the Freeman granny. 

So this week be cautious and be careful. Try to not let what your eyes see influence the rest of your season too much. Trust yourself from just a week ago and start to breakdown if the quick starts or sluggish beginnings are a blip or an omen for things to come. 

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