Last week in this column we spoke about two Texas Rangers who were buys, despite their slow starts, and how each one of them could be had at a bargain. This week there are two starters that it's time to unload onto another owner who maybe will still value them at their peak pre-draft price tag.
Both of the Arizona Diamondback starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes were top 10 picks among starting pitchers and both have some serious question marks surrounding them. Their stat lines look ugly but it's the underlying metrics that make fantasy managers shutter and those metrics spell sell.
Corbin Burnes is the first name, and his new team can't be happy with what they have seen thus far. Burnes began the week with an ERA approaching 5, a WHIP that was nearly 1 1/2, no wins, and his K's are down to just 3 each in the past 3 games. But it goes even deeper for their newly minted $210 million dollar man.
Burnes has watched his strikeout rate drop every year from 2020 when it was 36.7% to 2021 at 35.6%, in 2022 it fell to 30.5%, in 2023 it had a huge drop to 25.5%, last season it fell more to 23.1%, and this year he is getting close to the teens with a 20.3% strikeout rate. To put that into perspective Griffin Canning has a higher K rate right now. That also coincides with the highest walk rate increase from last year in the league and a decrease in velocity. Get an owner that still believes Burnes is who he was in the past and unload him as soon as you can.
Zac Gallen is another DBacks starter who was once a sure-fire ace, but those innings may have caught up with Gallen. He sits with a 5.60 ERA this season, like Burnes his WHIP is up near 1 1/2 and while his K numbers don't seem bad if you take away that one gem of a game where he struck out 13, he would have 16 K's in 21 innings.
Gallen has had high pitch counts, he is nibbling the corners, which has led to his increased walk rates and home run problems. That means he doesn't trust his own stuff, which has been reported that his fastball has lost it's jump. Gallen has watched his ERA increase each of the past four seasons, the same with his WHIP and that spells long term trouble.
If you paid for Gallen or Burnes to be your ace, you understand the problems they have put you through this early month of the season. Don't hold on hoping for a huge turnaround, sell now while they still have good value before they fall even further.