The Oklahoma City Thunder opened up the NBA Finals as one of the biggest favorites in history and after losing game 1 those odds were literally cut in half, but there is still some value after their game 2 win.
The Thunder sat as much as -800 to open the finals and before game 2 that number was down to -350. That was a buy in moment for any keen sports bettor, but it didn't last long. The Thunder dominated game 2 and that shot the series back to -500 in most books.
The thing is, there is still some value here. Look, laying -500 in any situation is tough but you are getting a team that have controlled this series almost the entire time. In fact, the Pacers led for just 3 seconds in the game and OKC lost a 15-point 4th quarter lead. Then they went out and had full control in game 2 where it seemed like they led by double digits the entire night.
So now you get the #1 seed in the West, the best player on the court, the best defense in the NBA, home court advantage, and a team that has had the lead in almost the entire series, for what is still a discounted value. Remember this team opened at -800 and now is down to -500. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the most points scored in the first two games of a finals already with 76 points and he looks unstoppable at the moment. The Thunder are also 5 1/2 point favorites for game 3 and they have history behind them, since 2005, road favorites of 3 or more points in the Finals have won seven of those eight games.
It's hard for some bettors to determine when there is value on a heavy favorite, but this is the time. The Thunder losing game 1 could have been the best thing for bettors who were looking to buy into the series. Think of it this way, if the Pacers had lost game 1 the look ahead line for game 3 would have been close to -1500 for the series, instead we get a chance at one third of that price because of that loss.
Suggesting that anyone buy in on a -500 favorite is always dangerous, but the smart player still sees some value, and if you believe that the books always win there are reports that nearly 70% of the series money is on the Pacers. Being on the side of the books usually works out well so don't let the big line scare you off for this series.