Hi, my name is Jack Thaler, and I hope you enjoyed last week's edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience.
This week, I will try to find out if having the Number 1 pick in the draft matters.
To determine if the number one pick matters, I will be using the top 3 ADP players from the last four years, as the person with the number one pick almost always selects a player within the first three ADP spots.
I will say a year did matter if at least 2 of that year's top 3 ADP players were deserving of that spot during that year in ADP.
In 2024, these three players were Ronald Acuna, Bobby Witt, and Julio Rodriguez.
Acuna ended up being out for the year, Witt had a really good year, and Rodriguez had a down year.
So 2024 does not matter much for the number one pick. In 2023, these three players were Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and Jose Ramirez.
Judge was out for most of the year, Turner had a fine year but was not deserving of this spot, and J-Ram had a down year but I will still say that he was deserving.
So 2023 didn’t matter for the number one pick. In 2022, the top 3 were Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Juan Soto.
Turner was deserving of this spot, Vladdy was also deserving, but Soto was not deserving, though. 2022 was our first year where having the Number 1 pick mattered.
In 2021, the top 3 were Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, and Mookie Betts. Acuna only played half the season,
Tatis was deserving, but Betts was not deserving, though.
So in 2021 having the Number one pick didn’t matter.
So in only one of the four years, having the number one pick mattered.
But I am still gonna say it depends from year to year because while there is always a ton of really good players and hidden talents available to people in the first round who don’t have the number one pick, some years there is a player available who is just so much better than all the others that having the number one pick matters a lot.
This was the case in 2021 with Tatis, who hit 42 bombs while also stealing 25 bags and batting .282. So always make sure to look out for that one super player, but also remember that you can have an incredible first-round pick without having the number 1 pick. Now for my waiver pickups of the week.
Pitchers:
Patrick Corbin
Frankie Montas
Patrick Corbin got off to a fine start this year, but he has put up two really good starts in a row and looks like his old self again. Frankie Montas since coming back from injury, has been great, and if Montas gets going, he can be really good, so look out.
Hitters:
Ryan McMahon(3B)
Matt Shaw (3B)
Ryan McMahon is a power-hitting lefty, and going to New York means he is going to have the short porch to hit to, so I expect a lot of homers from McMahon. Watch out for him.
Matt Shaw is a top prospect for the Cubs who got his rookie year off to a rough start.
Right now, though, he has a massive hit streak going, and Shaw has a lot of talent on his side, so watch out for him as well.
I hope these waiver adds help, and I look forward to seeing you next week for my 8th edition of My Fantasy Baseball Experience!