Week one in the NFL is here and for sports bettors it's like Christmas in September.
It's a new year and a new chance to make some money, but early season pitfalls often doom bettors. On the flip side getting off to a hot start in week one can set the tone for a very profitable season ahead.
Week one is unlike any other week for sports bettors because there is a distinctive advantage for a keen professional. Most casual public wagers come in with little to no knowledge of changes in the coordinators, game flow differences, even personnel that have been inserted into a team. The public relies upon what they watched last year as much as anything else, and that can give us a big edge in the set lines by the books.
For example, knowing that last year was a massive outlier for the sports books is something that we should be very cognizant of. Favorites ruled the day finishing the season winning 71 of their games. That's the 3rd-best regular season since 1980. Favorites now cashed on the money line for two years running, the first time that has happened in the past 20 seasons.
Then there are strictly week one trends that stick out.
Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 against the spread in Week 1’s as an NFL head coach, while Dan Campbell is 4-0 ATS in Week 1.
Rookie QBs making their first start on the road for week 1 have been a cash cow to bet against. I'm looking at you Cam Ward. Since 1970 rookie QBs are 8-21 straight up in this spot and #1 overall selected QBs are just 5-22-1 straight up.
When the Super Bowl team gets blown out the year before they struggle in week 1. This applies to the Chiefs. The losing team that loses by more than two TDs have lost 7 straight openers.
Then there is the good with the Miami Dolphins and a record of 8-3 in Week one since 2013. But the flip side of that is the Chicago Bears are just 3-7 their last 10 opening days, but they have won 2 of their last 3 openers.
None of that comes close to the Colts who have been an ATM machine to bet against in Week 1. The Colts are an unthinkable 0-10-1 their last 11 opening day games.
Last year teams playing at home went 11-5 straight up and nine of those teams scored 26 or more points, while fourteen teams were kept to 20 points or less. The year prior, home teams went just 7-9 and scoring was down. Twenty teams failed to score more than 21 points that season and just seven teams scored more than 30 points.
Trends and past results don't always make for a successful bet, but it's good to know that with week 1's volatility there are some numbers we can grasp onto.