A new statewide poll is shaking up New York’s political landscape, showing that Congresswoman Elise Stefanik narrowly leads Gov. Kathy Hochul in a potential 2026 gubernatorial matchup — the first time in decades a Republican has polled ahead of a sitting Democrat governor.
According to the Manhattan Institute survey, Stefanik holds a one-point edge over Hochul, 43% to 42%, among registered voters, and a wider six-point lead over Lieutenant Gov. Antonio Delgado. The poll, which leans heavily toward Democrats in its sampling, suggests that voter frustration with rising costs and state policies could be fueling a political realignment.
Team Elise called the results historic, stating, “In a heavily Democrat-leaning state, Republican Elise Stefanik is leading Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a head-to-head matchup.” The campaign blasted Hochul as “the Worst Governor in America” and criticized her endorsement of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, calling him a “Defund the Police, tax-hiking, raging Antisemite Socialist.”
The poll also provides a snapshot of New York City’s upcoming mayoral election, where Mamdani leads with 46% of the vote, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 31% and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa at 21%. With 8% undecided, Mamdani could win without securing a majority of votes — something New York hasn’t seen since John Lindsay’s election in 1969.
Despite Mamdani’s apparent strength, the survey found that voters remain skeptical of several progressive policies, favoring tougher penalties for fare evasion, rolling back bail reform, and maintaining merit-based education standards.
Though Hochul endorsed the Socialist Mamdani, he did not return the favor as his supports roundly booed the government at a recent campaign rally and chanted “Tax the rich.” Hochul embarrassly said she thought they were yelling Go Bills for the Buffalo football team.
With Stefanik’s numbers climbing, analysts predict next year’s contest could be the most competitive in generations.