Guest Essay by Scott A. Mandia, Suffolk County Community College Professor of Physical Sciences
I keep hearing people claim that “this was going to be a very snowy winter season.” I found it odd, because we are in a weak La Niña phase, which—other factors being equal—usually means less snow. Then I realized what was happening: after five years with very little snowfall, even a normal winter will feel like a big one. Here is an AI summary of the current seasonal forecasts:
Average Snowfall: Long Island’s average is about 30 inches, a mark the region hasn’t hit since the 2020–2021 season.
National Weather Service (NWS) Outlook: The NWS Climate Prediction Center gives nearly even odds of a warm, quiet winter versus a cold, stormy one. It forecasts a 33%–40% chance of slightly above-average temperatures and equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.
La Niña Factor: This winter will be influenced by a weak La Niña pattern. Historically, La Niña winters are highly variable, producing anywhere from nearly 40 inches of snow (2017–2018) to a record low of 2.5 inches (2022–2023). The NWS generally expects near- to slightly below-normal snowfall in these setups.
Local Meteorologist Predictions Are Split:
- Fox 5’s Nick Gregory predicts 15–20 inches.
- NY Metro Weather’s John Homenuk predicts 25–32 inches.
- ABC’s Alan Nosoff predicts 25–35 inches.
Uncertainty: A potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in early December could push cold Arctic air south, but meteorologists say it’s impossible to know exactly where that cold will land, adding to the season’s uncertainty.
I hope we continue with little to no snow—it makes my job easier.